I'm reading my way slowly throught the AW pdf and enjoying it. Once again, kudos to Vincent for the super pdf offer.
Something is puzzling me abpout the Help or Interfere move and its probabilities. I might have my hypothesis and/or my calculation wrong. Don't hesitate to shoot them down if necessary.
Hypothesis: I'm a player trying to decide if I should help or interfere.
If I'm in a helpful disposition I'll consider helping if overall probability of success is higher when I help than when I don't. (There is an assumption here -> the MC will systematically complicate the whole situation if I fail my Help roll. Which isn't necessarily true)
If I'm in an interfering mood I'll consider interfering if overall probability of failure is higher when I interfere than when I don't. (For simplicity sake I discard the case where I fail my Interfere roll because depending on the MC it have many different implications)
So here I detail two cases: one when the target use a trait of zero for their roll and the other when the target benefits of a +2 trait. In both case I arbitrarily decided that my Hx with the target is +1 (72% success of helping/interfering).
move (at 0) 2d6>=7 -> 58% lonesome success
help 2d6>=6 -> 72%, 72% * 72% = 51% -> worse than 58% lonesome probability of success
interfere 2d6<9 -> 73%, 72% * 73% = 52% -> better than 42% lonesome probability of failure
move (at +2) 2d6>=5 -> 83% lonesome success
help (at +1) 2d6>=4 -> 91%, 72% * 91% = 65% -> worse than 83% lonesome probability of success
interfere (at +1) 2d6<7 -> 42%, 72% * 42% = 30% -> better than 17% lonesome probability of failure
So here I am with a strong hint that interfering is a good move but helping sucks ass. I mean it as if I was purely gamist in my view of the game. Of course there could fictional reasons that make decisions more complicated. But yeah, it seems helping isn't helping.
What did I do wrong in my reasoning?